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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Weekend Holds and Plays for 5/11

No expert here and I won't claim that I have done any sort of extensive DD outside of reading articles, forums and staring at lots of colorful charts. So take these for what they are: plays on headlines and what I think will be in headlines next week.
Pharm/Bio: AIM: a company that focuses on anti-virals and immune systems (in HUMANS not animals).
Crypto:MARA (already spiked big so beware) and RIOT: bitcoin will be all over the news for a few days (the halving!!!! its like y2k for crypto i guess).
Oil: these are like a played out meme from a month ago I guess but earnings are coming and the economy in the US still isn't close to being at full speed - oil storage still needed and NAT already told us that they are making hand over fist cash. expected to pay a dividend also. I'm holding NAT
Paper: under the radar cheap buy here. ITP. It is a company that makes paper (TP) and facemasks in china. The price is dirt cheap and China is reopening ahead of us. I'm going in heavy.

Good luck to all of you. I hope you turn your $1200 into $4800 by June. Take the profits and run. Safe weekend to all.
submitted by phurricane to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Tesla Stock Surpasses $1200 — Now 30% Higher Than Bitcoin Market Cap (current BTC/USD price is $9,244.50)

Latest Bitcoin News:
Tesla Stock Surpasses $1200 — Now 30% Higher Than Bitcoin Market Cap
Other Related Bitcoin Topics:
Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools.
submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]

05-08 09:44 - 'When will the retracement come? #FUD' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/gotthis7 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 220-230min

'''
Hey, guys! First of all - congratulations to all the HODLers, you deserve it! Soon you'll be able to take a ride in your new Lambo with the friends who doubted your sanity. In other news - it really seems a bit weird how BTC is escalating. I'm damn happy (and damn angry for not being able to buy in the big dip), but still very cautious because history shows a retracement before the moon. Ok, this only bothers me because I'm new here, but have been following the growth for a year. My argument is the upcoming economic crash. Most of the analysts predict the price just from the charts and not considering psychology and overall market situation. As BTC did drop after the stock market drop, I suppose it should drop when people will need their $1200 money that now is $1600. Not even talking about the eurozone collapse (7-10% crash this year). Most people haven't seen the Stock2Flow chart and don't believe $100k price in 18 months.
I need two things from you, guys: 1) What strain should I smoke to ease my nerves and just fucking HODL on? Just buy-in heavily on the discounts when they finally come as Warren Buffet would say. 2) How to argument my wife that we need to invest a couple more thousand if the retracement comes? (we're living pretty frugal and she's kinda supportive but doesn't understand a thing about BTC)
'''
When will the retracement come? #FUD
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: gotthis7
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Let's put it into some perspective...

Let's put it into some perspective... submitted by IshidaT to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Let's talk about Operation Dragonslayer

There's a conspiracy theory going around about Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BCC) that I think my fellow redditors should know about.
TLDR: In 17.5 hours BCH will try to usurp BTC as the "true" Bitcoin and this will cause BTC prices to tank to unrecoverable levels and will have side effects on alts as well since BTC is the main pair.
Technical TLDR: The conspiracy plan is that when Bitcoin locks their difficulty algorithm, a group of miners will switch to BCH in mass and pump BCH to huge levels. This will cause a panic sell of BTC and cause people to try and transfer BTC from their wallets to exchanges, but because all the miners have left and the difficulty is locked, the network will be clogged with slow and expensive transactions for the next 2 weeks, spelling the end of Bitcoin.
Longer Story
I'm going to assume most people here are fairly new to crypto and weren't around for all the politics and drama between /bitcoin and /btc
There's a lot to understand about the interplay between difficulty algorithm changes, miner reward incentives, the politics of the pools that take a while to go into.
These two articles might help catch you up:
Two weeks ago we saw something similar when BCH exploded and BTC went all the way down to $5500. This was because BTC had a difficulty algorithm change and BCH was approximately 3-4x more profitable to mine. Only Slush kept mining BTC so we'll see if they stay true to BTC this time around too.
Right now we're seeing BTC, ETH, and most alts fall at the exact same time BCH rises. This might be bots reading the right indicators and buying/selling.
The estimated time of the difficulty algorithm changes is on the bottom of https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
Other important items to note:
Will Thanksgiving Weekend 2017 be like Thanksgiving Weekend 2013? We'll see...
Strategies
  • Start moving your BTC and alts off of wallets and into the right exchanges just in case the networks get clogged and you want to be ready to make a move
  • Go into FIAT to avoid this drama and enter in again after this passes
  • Go into BCH
  • Put some super low limit orders on BTC in case stop orders and panic selling cause another flash crash like ETH had on GDAX
FAQ
What is the "dragon" being slain?
Some think it's Bitcoin, the biggest crypto. Other think it's a private chat group that a bunch of Core folks are in that they self-dubbed the Dragon's Den in an self-mocking fashion
Isn't this just some stupid 4chan meme?
Rational brains would agree, and chances are it really is and Jihan and gang are shaking their head in disbelief that people would believe something like this.
But $4B of volume on BCH is undeniable, and not something that a bunch of "trolls" can just conjure up.
submitted by darkally to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

A Couple of Notes on the 2013/14 Bubble VS. 2017 Bubble

I'm seeing a lot of posts comparing the 2017 Bubble to the 2013-14 Bubble. I think the comparisons are fair. However, many people are mixing up what happened in 2013-14 and the timeline. One of the most common mistakes I'm seeing is that the 2013-14 bubble popped due to Mt. Gox insolvency. That is false.
The 2013-14 bubble was abrupt, even when compared to the 2017 bubble. The price skyrocketed from $200 USD to $1200 USD in one month. From November 1st to November 30th, BTC went up basically 6X. Back in 2013-14, there were basically two markets which were getting solid volume. BTC/USD and BTC/CNY. BTC/USD was mostly taking place on Mt. Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase, and BTC-e. BTC/CNY was mostly taking place on OKCoin and BTCChina. There was no Korea or Japan back then, which definitely played a major role in the recent bull market.
And while Chinese exchanges were creating a lot of fake volume back in 2013-14 through 0% exchange fees, the fact was that China was leading the markets. [1] They consistently held a 10%+ premium over USD exchanges during the bull run. At the height of the bubble in China, before the PBOC stepped in with its clampdown on Bitcoin, China Telecom and Baidu announced support for Bitcoin. It was on the verge of literally replacing the CNY. [2]
On November 30th, 2013, a rumor emerged that the PBOC (People's Bank of China / China Government) was about to crack down on Bitcoin. A mass panic ensued. The price crashed from $1200 USD to $780 USD. In one day. That's a 35% crash in a single day. However, the market quickly bounced back as people argued that these rumors were fabricated. However, this rebound was short lived.
On December 5th, 2013, the PBOC made an official announcement. The government banned financial institutions from interacting with Bitcoin. They also clarified that products / services in China could not be priced in BTC (they must be priced in CNY). The markets went straight down on this news. From $1150 USD when it broke to $540 on December 7th. A 3 day drop of over 50%.
Where was Mt. Gox in all this? They were chugging along, delaying fiat withdrawals. Bitcoin withdrawals were working fine. Deposits too. For much of November and December there was very little noise about Mt.Gox actually being insolvent. The overwhelming market sentiment on the matter was that their banks were being disrupted by the US Government investigations into Silkroad. This was true to a very mild extent.
If you'd like to argue that people knew Mt. Gox was insolvent at the time of the 2013-14 bubble crash, I'd like to point out that Bitfinex basically had the exact same issues arise in 2017. Fiat withdrawals and deposits were basically turned off. Clearly Bitfinex was a different situation in hindsight (we hope!), but initially it was playing out just the same as Mt. Gox. The markets never really reacted to Bitfinex fiat issues, just as they didn't react to the Mt. Gox issues. There was so much money going through Mt. Gox that it had a Titanic feel to it. The majority of people bought their first BTC on Mt. Gox.
The Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wlTsEFJ4-Reason-Behind-2013-14-Bitcoin-Bear-Market/
This chart outlines the dates of the key events in the 2013-14 bubble crash. The most significant event in the crash was absolutely the China ban. That is what kicked off the 2013-14 bubble crash, and it definitely had the most profound impact on price. While the Mt. Gox fiasco certainly did not help the markets, it's not the reason for the bubble and should not be quoted as the reason. [3]
So in conclusion, when people are comparing the 2014 bubble with the 2017 bubble, it should be noted that they are very different. But not for the reasons most people assume. They are different because the 2014 bubble was almost entirely based on the Chinese market, and it was squashed by the PBOC themselves by imposing big regulations.
Today, the markets are certainly more spread out and there are less single points of failure. There is no single event which turned the bull market to a bear market this time around, although I personally believe we ran out of gas this time around because of regulation in Korea and China.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/28/buyer-beware-bitcoins-fate-could-rest-with-china.html
[2] https://www.coindesk.com/baidu-stops-bitcoin-price-slumps-again/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox
submitted by bitreality to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

What was the overall feel/emotion like just before the november bubble?

Was it like it is now with people making their predictions and wondering as to when the next bubble will occur? Was it more neutral emotion where nobody saw the bubble coming? Or was it bearish emotion thinking that the markets could take a dive?
submitted by kfull to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I hate my Fucking Mining Rig - Short Story of my mining adventure (Don't really hate it)

Wanted to write a short write up on my journey of Crypto mining for some of the newer people and people who want to get into it. Not trying to discourage anyone from starting, but want to show the progression of a newbie.
So I am a good with computers and learned of Bitcoin when it was about $7 a coin. Laughed at the idea of some computer doing some math and getting some BS currency. Million dollar mistake on my part, but hindsight is always 20/20.
Anyways, Learned about ethereum in May. Bought some at around $180 and bought all the way up to $330. Now to the mining rig. Ran all of the calculations and with a 180 hashrate and 900 watts I was gonna get 6-7 Eth per month. Shit was gonna be profitable in under 3 months. I was gonna be a fucking crypto allstar and be rich as fuck!
Bought all of my parts literally the day before they were nonexistent. Literally bought the last RX480's from Amazon. Here is a list of my parts.
Asrock board Pentium dual core processor 4 Gb of ram 128 gb SSD 1200 watt Rosewill PSU 6 Sata to Molex PCI Risers (Junk) 6 RX480's - 2 Asus Strix, 4 Gigabyte Total cost - Roughly $2,500 (Pennies compared to my future ROI)
Please keep in mind that I am not posting every single miner issue that I ran into such as fucking with Wattman for a few weeks before learning about Trixx and Afterburner.
I've built computers before, so that part wasn't hard. Set everything up and get windows 10 running.
Problem 1 - Computer doesn't see all of the cards. Had to run the drivers a few times and tweak some shit, but got all 6 cards seen.
Miner hurdle (See what I did there) but off to the races. Let's get this bitch running so I can begin planning my retirement.
Get Claymore running, Got Trixx to overclock. Ran my cards at -96, 1200, 2200 fans at 85% (Cause I'm cool like that.) Major stability issues from the start. 1 card (Asus) would crash all the time. Didn't know about the watch dog feature in claymore that would restart my rig when a card crashed. Great feature but my computer would go into this state of having power, but not loading the operating system. Even if it did restart, most of the time claymore would get stuck right before setting the dag's and would just lock up. (Claymore program is awesome by the way, this was my rigs fault)
Could not get this fucking Asus card to stop crashing, even on stock settings. Sent the bitch back RMA style. Asus said something was wrong and sent me a new one.
Awesome, lets get this bitch running. I need to start looking at sick houses in Costa Rica to move to once I am rich as Fuck!
New card makes things better for a few days. Not 100% stable but better. Go to vegas for a driving thing (Race cars - Future rich guy stuff) and this mechanical demon starts crashing every few hours. Luckily I had Google remote desktop installed so I could log on and restart it or change settings in Trixx. Had to have my GF unplug it and plug it in a few times.
Get back home, fuck with this thing but still random crashes on random cards. Decide it is the PCI risers. Contact seller who will send me some more for free. Slow boat from china took two weeks to get them. They arrive but still some of them are bad. Can't seem to piece together 6 good ones.
Did some research online (Ethereum Forum and Reddit) and decided to get some new style of risers V007 6 Pin to Sata ($70) and they take a month to get here. Plug them all in and they seem to be working much better. Decent stability, But I ain't got time for fucking stock bios. Let's ramp these bitches up and get 32 MHs per card at 600 watts from the wall!
Actually flashing the bios was pretty easy. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus! Long story short had some major stability issues and bounced around with some different timing straps before finding the right ones. (Uber 3.1 for Samsung memory)
So now that we've got some good hash speeds and decent stability let's ramp this private ATM up a little bit by dual mining some Decred. Get dual mining up and running. go to sleep. Wake up the next morning expecting to see myself on the top 100 forbes list. look at my mining rig stats on my phone and see that it died roughly and hour after I went to sleep. Walked toward my rig on the red carpet I had just installed and saw that it was off. Flicked on the light to check it out. No light, WTF? Well I'll be god damned, no power in this whole fucking room. Checked my breakers and sure enough this metal motherfucker tripped my breaker.
No worries though. I'm smart as fuck. I'll just undervolt the shit out of it to get the power down. No way in hell I am just mining ether. I'm going balls to the wall!
As you can expect I had many days of stability issues and tripped breakers. But fuck it, I have homeowners insurance. Burning it to the ground will be covered. (Didn't happen)
My surge protector must be maxed out. Let's buy a bigger one ($25). Same issues.
Fuck Decred, I'll mine SIA, less power. Damn I'm smart.
Rig is more stable with Sia and no tripped breakers. Family medical emergency, have to fly north for a few days. But my rig has been fairly stable and I've got remote desktop if anything goes wrong.
Arrive at airport, check mining stats, rig is down. No worries remote desktop. FUCK, not responsive, no way to remote into the rig and no way to remotely power it off and on.
Lost 4 days of mining. But no worries the difficulty is only, Holy shit that's high! But the price of Ether will make up for it. Ether crashed to the $200's. Oh well, maybe a 10 room house in Costa instead of a 12. No sweat.
Get back to my house and this whore of a machine is just sitting there in a computer coma. It's on but it's not. LED lights glaring at me like "Fuck you human, I ain't doing your stupid math problems!" Fuck you machine, I'm your master. You will do my math problems and you will fucking like it.
My AMD Drivers seem to disappear and the computer goes into a coma like state. Someone on Reddit suggested using the 16.9.2 drivers. Installed and they worked better.
Still random crashing. This shitty PSU must be maxed out. Fuck you PSU, I'm getting you a little brother (EVGA 750 gold $120.)
What do you mean you have to jerry rig a second PSU so it starts without being connected to a motherboard? 2 more hours of my life wasted.
But finally some stability. On my way to being fucking rich. I start looking at people in bentley's and can only laugh. You dumb fuck, I'm gonna be way richer then you. Gonna get a Bugatti for each day of the week.
Damn this difficulty is a bitch. Fuck you Genesis Mining and your pallets of GPU's. You're killing me smalls!
But anyway, on my way to rolling around in my fuck you money!
Fuck you dag file 135, you're killing my future millions. Fuck you dag 138, you dropped me to 167 mhs.
Thank god AMD was there to save my ass with their dope ass blockchain drivers.
download, run DDU, Restart, install drivers, restart, run pixel patch, restart. Perfect, I'm in the money now! I can taste the caviar and champagne already.
Now my cards only run 4 Mhs each. WTF? Try a bunch of the other new drivers. Same shit. Roll back to 16.9.2 and they run fine, just at 167 instead of 180.
Someone on a forum said he had the same issue and did a fresh install of windows 10 and it worked.
So I'll just reformat my SSD (Windows wouldn't do a fresh install within the operating system. Fuck you Bill Gates! Gonna buy you once I get this thing running at 180.)
Format SSD, plug back in, throw in my gangster ass boot USB drive. Ramdisk error. Fuck you Bill Gates! Reformat SSD multiple times, lots of forum reading. Install windows from another computer through command prompt (I'm a coder now as well.) This shit has got to work, I did it in command prompt bitches!
Same fucking error. Now down to an 8 bedroom house in Costa and only 6 Bugattis.
Let's try unplugging my 6 cards and see if that works. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus. Windows installed.
New drivers work and I'm back at 180! Raking in the cash now.
With those speeds my Asus cards crashed. Had to dial down the hashrate to 177.5 for them to be stable. So now going to use some commands in claymore to run the Asus cards at lower speeds while letting my other cards mine harder.
I wrote this to let people know that mining isn't all Bugatti's and caviar. These machines are fickle little cunts that do what they want. No system is the same. So when you post on a forum, people will give you advice on what may work. But what works for them, may not work on your rig. In the end it's up to you to figure it out.
I have spent countless hours after work and on weekends working on this bitch. Hell I've probably spent a few hours just staring at it and thinking about all of the ways I could destroy it slowly.
While I love Etheruem and do value the knowledge gained, I would have made more money just buying Eth and holding.
The guys you see on youtube building sick rigs with crazy specs have been at it for a while. They have worked through the process and know how to solve all of the problems. You have not and will have to work them out on your own.
My whore of a rig will pay for itself soon. But I would suggest that if you want to start building a new mining rig. Check the difficulty chart and make sure you have tons of free time to fuck with it.
I'd post my wallet address for donations since I just saved you $2,600. But I am afraid hackers will steal my monies :)
Hope you enjoyed my mining life story from the past few months.
submitted by dank4us12 to EtherMining [link] [comments]

December 25th CHRISTMAS (Presents from the King)! News on Christmas: MCO, PAY, WAVES, BAY…Tech This Week: BURST, ICX, XVG, STRAT, XEM, ARDR

December 25th CHRISTMAS (Presents from the King)! News on Christmas: MCO, PAY, WAVES, BAY…Tech This Week: BURST, ICX, XVG, STRAT, XEM, ARDR
Ok yesterday with a market that basically tanked I managed to pick 5 of the only green coins out of literally 1200. MCO, PAY, BURST, ICX, and STRAT were all in the green. Picking winners when everything is green is one thing, but when the market is swimming in red and you have the 4 green, it’s a good day.
I appreciate all my loyal followers! For tips and strategy hours before being posted to the message boards follow on Reddit, Instagram: JaketheCryptoKing and Twitter: JbtheCryptoKing. And now on Discord: https://discord.gg/MWBTWFV (join group to reach me directly and see posts early!) Remember in trading minutes matter, hours are eternities.
Let's get to it, Merry Christmas All! News For Christmas: MCO has promised a Christmas bonus. Their twitter is swimming with hints about a KRISTMAS (spelled incorrectly? Bonus!). According to MCO, "We have something special planned for all of you for December 25th and we think you will love it." Their new cards are supposed to be released by January 1, maybe their debit cards (allowing you to exchange crypto for FIAT instantly) are ready?! Check them out online they look GORGEOUS. I have already placed orders for 3/5 of the available ones and I’m #40,000+ I expect MCO to start rolling these cards out, there is absurd demand for them. With surprise Christmas news tomorrow and a working product this month this coin should skyrocket. If you are interested in getting a card rf downloading the ap they are gorgeous: https://get.mona.co/ivwt/tc7kbhig6I
PAY tweeted earlier today about shutting down their system for a short period while they prepared for the Christmas surprise. This confirms we will have Christmas news and from the tone of the tweet, positive news! What could it be?! With many projects and partnerships on the horizon I highly doubt they would release negative news on Christmas this is a must own for tomorrow to find out what news is released!
WAVES’s founder has a livestream occurring on Christmas (not sure how he picked the day) at least everyone will be home to watch it? Either way their NG activation was successful, they have a live stream with the coin founder tomorrow, and a presentation at an enormous Miami Blockchain Convention in January. This is a buy and hold. Not to mention the Binance promotion which in essence is buy and hold WAVES (you lose points if you sell) is in effect for another 3 days and they are having an airdrop and the end of the month. Nothing but positive information here. If you need a Binance account to trade WAVES please use my referral link: https://www.binance.com/?ref=15316928
BAY has hinted at a Christmas surprise for some time now. The crypto coin market is gambling mixed with stock trading. My money is on BAY not disappointing and releasing news worthy of placing it in the 20%+ range with heavy volume.
Now that the “NEWS” section is complete, which is all positive news for today! Let’s begin to discussion on technology. Nothing really creates 100% gains (or more) in the Crypto Markets like technological block chain advances. This is the week’s leaders for this category…
BURST is one of the most unique altcoins on the scene. I wrote about them yesterday and they are here today because on the 27th we get Dymaxion. Do you investors/followers/crytophenes know what one of the biggest problem with mining is? Electricity consumption! BURST changes that by using 400x less electricity then BTC miners. They have their Dymaxion launch this week and their mining platform should revolutionize blockchain tech. BURST uses free memory space instead of CPU, GPU, and ASIC miners using literally less than 0.025% of the electricity when compared to BTC’s mining algorithm. BTC mining uses more electricity than many small nations and BURST will provide an ability to mine at a very low cost while still having a tradable coin on exchanges. Imagine being able to use the free memory on your computer, while you sleep to earn an income, the technology is crazy. I expect this week (their release is the 27th), particularly the next 72 hours to see the biggest BURST gains to date, while leading volume on Bittrex.
NXT (will be in each post until the airdrop, and it went from $.7 when originally recommended to $1.80ish), with the future value of airdrop priced this should trend toward $2.00 or $2.50. As I’m writing this I see it’s spiked over $1.60. That is more then 100% gains in 72 hours, I’ve been screaming to buy NXT in all of my prior posts. Two days ago it popped. The whole market trended downward yesterday. However, NXT should continue to trend toward $2.00+. I just did the math on the IGNIS airdrop, the IGNIS has increased to $4.02 in value, meaning NXT should be worth a minimum of $2.00, a penny more for every penny NXT is worth following the airdrop, price point $2.00-$3.00 depending on if IGNIS continues to appreciate. More people will become interested in “free IGNIS” tokens in the coming days. NXT and the future value of IGNIS should continue to appreciate following Christmas leading up to the airdrop.
ICX was one of the few winners yesterday! Their Mainnet goes live by the end of December which means any day now there will be that 100% pop everyone dreams of. Leading up to that we should receive the hype and anticipation boost on a daily basis. I expect ICX to rally 10% daily until the Mainnet announcement is made with a 100% gain the day of going live! Having a live Mainnet is essential for a viable crypto currency. Welcome to the big leagues ICX.
XVG, VERGE WRAITH PROTCOL (XVG promises this to come out by end of year, plus a very impressive ad came out 4 days ago so I doubt they miss their deadline) anonymity with the flick of a button (public and private ledges in one block chain). By the time you are reading this post it may unfortunately be too late . There is speculation Wraith may be released in the morning. XVG has promised WRAITH will be released by the end of this year, it should hit $.50-$1 range when it does, McAfee although I don’t agree w/him on much he says, states a $15 price target within 6 months of Wraith Protocol being released. I’m saying $1.00 it’s currently $.25 that’s a 400% upswing if I’m right, 4000% if McAfee is. Does it matter really who is correct at that point?
Wraith allows the individual user to determine if they want their balance visible on the block chain or not. Right now we have coins like Monero which are completely anonymous hence their use on the dark web, or ones that are completely public where anyone who knows your wallet address can check your balance. Verge lets each user determine whether to be, public or private, this will revolutionize blockchian and altcoins. If you want to see the impressive link for the Wraith ad here it is: https://youtu.be/dMrk6rozbJg
An article was written today by Bitcoinist highly favorable of Verge, Wraith will make the coin value explode: http://bitcoinist.com/verge-next-bitcoin/.
XEM has been quiet but should NOT go unnoticed. Have you seen yesterday's chart? I suggest you glance at it. Literally no dips, 45degree angle upward. Leading to what.... Catapult, which is version 2.0 of NEM (is to be released by the end of the year). Plus a 4 week hackathon beginning in January. There is nothing better to build awareness and test out their new Catapult network they’ll be releasing this week, then a worldwide hackathon and a new update to their NEM network. XEM will have a pop this week when Catapult goes live, followed by a 4 week awareness rally driven by a worldwide hackathon.
STRAT, is going to have an amazing week. It was one of the only positive performers on a day the market looked like the movie Jaws. They promised that by January, "I can confirm they will be able to host ICO's on our blockchain agnostic platform this year." STRAT is on the cusp of being able to host ICO’s for other companies. This is extremely valuable technology and they’ve announced it will be ready to go this week. Would anyone like to know the going rate of an ICO? 20-40BTC. Per ICO these small companies and their coin holders are making $250k-$600k at the depressed BTC prices. This is a very big business. They’ve also announced 2 Flagship ICOs that will be available on their STRATIS network in January. The platform to host ICOs goes live this week, and within 2 weeks we find out which ICOs STRAT is hosting. This should be a very positive 2 weeks for STRAT.
ARDR’s platform launches Jan 1st. Ardor’s blockchain becomes fully operational Jan 1st., and the Genesis snapshot is announced 1 week in advance. Not to mention all those NXT you’ve been holding for the free IGNIS are used specifically on the ARDR block chain. ARDR should continue to trend upward with NXT and IGNIS leading up to the airdrop. With a new platform and coins to be used on it this will be a positive week for ARDR with exceptionally high returns correlated with the new platform and IGNIS.
I am including some CB predictions as they are a favorite DM topic I’ve received of late. CB Future Picks the same screenshot that showed BCC showed XRP and Monero. CB admits new coins will be added in the next few months. It was speculated in the online community that because CB released wallets for BCC, XRP, and Monero that those would be added next. CB adamantly denies that they planned to add BCC, XRP, and Monero. And then CB added BCC. I fully expect XRP and Monero to be added within 2 months, and that the original rumor they denied had some truth to it. XRP and Monero are buy and holds. Another favorite question is ICOs. ICOs are very difficult because 99% of them are garbage which is why I've only recommended 2, one of which just met it's hard cap for fund :/. The only one left I like is.. Crypterium- The team is unreal and they are presenting at the Dubai Blockchain Intl’ in January. The ICO is also ending very soon! The bonus period ends in 2 days so I highly recommend getting an ether or 2 involved in this. The Dubai Blockchain Intl’ will greatly increase the number of individuals interested in holding Crypterium, (I make $0 off my posts and extensive research if you do purchase the ICOs please use my referral link): https://tokensale.crypterium.io/?ref=4a5381543424516aa2b4e3a6
Some Lovely Followers Requested I Provide Addresses for “Thank You’s and Holiday Cheer” Here are 3 address to help provide my girlfriend with presents so I can spend more time researching! What is 5% of the 200% I earned you this week? (NXT, Verge, MCO, PAY, EMC2, STRAT)
ETH: Address: 0x955A1a68613C028Ea98b0b5dcC58901897EB90DB LTC Address: LSnEW1h1bZwFH67s9tXZVX2GCZHNmzFGVN BTC address: 1GKPSkohnt9pSgBnXRmn2SejQNPWD96qif
Once again, no tips are mandatory but I spend 100’s of hours a week researching to make your investment and my small investment grow! Help spread the love this Holiday Season!
THESE ARE SOLELY STRATEGIES I USE IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKETS BY NO MEANS AM I TRYING TO PROVIDE INVESTMENT ADVICE. I DO OWN SOME OF THE LISTED CURRENCIES FOR THE REASONS I’VE STATED.
submitted by JakeTheCryptoKing to u/JakeTheCryptoKing [link] [comments]

Don't hold (story of a holder)

I was holder since 2011. Bought my first coins for few bucks a piece, then watched it climb to $32. Wow, awesome. 600%! Holding. Next bubble will probably be soon.
Then I sold half during long period when BTC was around $2 (it lasted many months: long, long stagnation). No bubble in sight, I lost patience.
Next bubble came out of nowhere. Re-bought some, but not much. Remember the shock seeing it reaching $100. Then it peaked at $266 and went sharply down. I was holding, and the money started to be serious.
MtGox bubble came. I was holding my coins (fortunately not at MtGox) and holding my breath. Wild ride to 4-digits territory. Then MtGox imploded. What I was supposed to do? I was holding. It's temporary I repeated to myself. It will rebound. It will be even more in the future. And it's all my profit melting, my original investment was small, so I'm still good.
And I'll be tough! I'll be proud of myself!
So I holded, even occasionally tried to buy on the rebounds, countertrend, losing coins and sleep. And it kept going down and down.
$800 – "It's just a single exchange bankrupt, don't make it such a big deal!"
$700 – "I made lot of money, still!"
$600 – "seems like it's reversing, let's go long!"
$500 – "but the technology is great I believe it!"
$400 – "it's crazy to sell so low!"
$300 – "boom or bust, I don't f* care"
$200 – "can't go lower, just can't! I don't want to watch the chart, I don't want to think about it, I don't want to calculate how much more I was worth when it was $1150, leave me alone, I'm HOLDING"
Then it went down (early 2015) to $160. I said to myself: "OK, that's it. Blood on the street and so on. I don't have guts to buy more, but it's the final act of bear market."
And it reversed. Went quite sharply to $315 (100%!). Then, with same pace went down to $200's. I was exhausted but holding. Price was bouncing for long weeks between $200 and $300, then settled in low $200's. "Let's forget it. It's a long term investment. Check back in 5 years!" I was repeating myself. But another voice in my head at the same time was telling me "You could have sold it. Maybe not on the very top. $800 is 4x today price. You fool".
In the summer 2015 price started climbing again, reaching $300. Then it begun slow decline. "Correction" I was thinking. "In the worst case we'll be back to $200's". And one day (there was some news I don't even remember what it was) it went down to $160.
That was the tipping point. Something broke inside me. I was ashamed of myself. I realized that none of that was true, and there's possibility that it will go down even further. WHY NOT?! I was thinking the same many times before. "It will never go down to $600, $400, $200...". Every single time I was wrong. So it can go to $100. Maybe $50. WHY NOT?
And it if goes to $100 from 1000% profit at the peak I would be at the loss. This would be so pathetic. All this because I was holder, I was tough.
I had enough reason not to act in the heat of the moment. The drop to $160 was temporary. I was patient, but the decision was made: I was about to sell half of my stash. It would prevent me for losing money on BTC, all what would be left is my profit.
So I act as planned. Price was again at $200s, I begun to sell. Price was going back and forth, with slight uptrend, I was selling while it was "high" ("$240! Nice price!") and refraining from selling while it was "low" ("$230. I'll wait"). I was quite proud of myself and my self control.
But I couldn't not notice that the price was going upwards. I was selling less and less, slower and slower, because nearly every day the price was bit higher. I sold roughly 40% and I stopped.
I think most of you know the rest of the story. Price reached $300 again and this time this level holded. Fast forward, and we're at $1200. Only 60% of my coins survived. Then the downtrend started, and there are clear fundamental reasons for the price to go down: negative ETF decision and block size "debate" (or war).
And I don't want to go thru all this again. I don't want to be brave, I don't want to be tough, I don't want to break when price will reach $700, $300 or $100 and sell and regret.
If you're holder: please reconsider. Holding will not get you a medal. No one really cares if you're tough. Your health is not worth it. If you consider much lower price a real possibility, sell now and buy later at the lower prices. Or even sell now and but at a slightly higher price, but without the stress. I don't complain I ended with 40% less coins when the price was again above $1000. What I hate is very painful process I went thru. I would gladly trade 10% gain for 50% less pain.
And I agree, it's about long term, and maybe one day BTC will be worth $10000. But even if you firmly believe that it will make it, there's one more thing: you have to make it and have some coins at that moment. And be in good shape, to enjoy the profit. Good luck.
Update: Some info on my trading strategy in 2016/2017: https://www.reddit.com/BitcoinMarkets/comments/61eu0t/dont_hold_story_of_a_holdedfe7omd/
submitted by reuptaken to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

New rule! Also are cryptocurrencies an investment, will there be a crash? Everything answered here!

This is going to be the only crypto post for now and an announcement:
Rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
If there's a stock correlated with cryptocurrencies, like coinbase going IPO, then that's fine, you might have to message the mods after posting to have it approved, no big deal.
Also if you're questioning whether something is an investment or not, just search for it on personalfinance. For general currency trading strategies, see forex .
If you're wondering if bitcoins are an investment or if there will be a crash, read on.

Are cryptocurrencies an investment?

This post is going to deal with bitcoins & cryptocurrencies as an investment... they're more speculative. All currencies are speculative mostly due to how the forex market works, but more because of exchange rates between countries keep currencies balanced (including inflation, country debt, interest rates, political & economic stability, etc), so you can only profit in price fluctuations.
Sure you could buy the currency of a depressed country, like Mexico decades ago, and then hold in the hopes it'll go up (which it did for Mexico), but that's also speculation (no one knew Mexico would pay off so much debt).
Bitcoins are also affected by other countries' currency values, but more so by the future expectation of legitimacy, world wide adoption, limited gains from mining, and eventual limit in supply. But at any given moment the United States could pay off more debt, raise interest rates to reduce inflation (or cause deflation), grow GDP, or even reduce the supply of USD all of which would increase the value of USD (keep in mind bitcoins can't do any of these things).
Far too many people are treating cryptocoins as an investment because currently (June 5th 2017) a lot of crypto investors are worth a lot of money, god bless you people, so this post will also help you determine if we're headed for a crypto crash and maybe you can keep those profits.

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?

Understand that an investment is something you hope will go up in the future or provide income, both of which for the long term vs speculation which profits on short term inefficiencies.
Speculative securities are typically commodities, options, bonds, and currencies, but also stocks that are volatile enough to give you extreme returns or extreme loses.

Examples of investments:

Examples of speculation:

Reducing the risk of speculation

Typically for speculation you reduce risk by reducing your trade size and timeframe, but since you're trying to invest into something that is speculative, you can try:
Asset allocation, a strategy that reduces risk.. If you're 80% stocks, 15% bonds, 4% gold, and 1% bitcoins, if something were to happen to bitcoins, you still have 99% of your money.
But even very aggressive long term portfolios leave speculation out completely and just go 100% stocks because stocks benefit from growth while speculative securities like gold benefit from global turmoil in the short term. Only mid risk & mid term portfolios can take advantage of gold's speculative returns.
I also mention asset allocation because many crypto investors have been using this strategy on a portfolio of 100% crypto coins, but that doesn't help you reduce the overall risk of crypto coins, you're just reducing the risk of 1 speculative asset with another speculative asset. 100% crypto portfolio would face the same risks such as being made illegal, IRS aggressively hunting down crypto profits, a drop in correlated coin markets, or just a loss of popularity would all cause a sell off. Even the USD or Chinese currencies becoming more valuable would reduce the value of crypto coins.

Should I buy coins right now?

Cryptocoins are a better investment after a period of consolidation when volatility has stabilized:

Bitcoin 2013/2014 speculation, chart

Bitcoin 2015 consolidation, chart

Source Bitstamp exchange, while the volume is #2 to GDAX, Bitstamp is better to look at for historical price/data, more charts here.

RSI & MACD key for above charts and primer

Analyzing overbought signals

So the first chart above have RSI & MACD screaming that bitcoin is overbought and you shouldn't invest in 2013/2014.
The black squares in the 2nd chart show consolidation and reduced volatility, a "better" time to invest. If you were trading short term, it would be a whole different story, and there would be opportunities to buy & short, but since this is written for investing, the small overbought signals are ignored, so if you were to buy Bitcoin at $300 inside the first blacksquare (2nd chart) and then it suddenly drops to 25%, it's okay because the volatility is much lower compared to previous price movements (nothing compared to 80% loss in the 1st chart). Any investor would tell you a 25% drop is terrible, but bitcoins are speculative and that kind of drop is pretty damn good for this level of volatility.

Nothing goes straight up forever

and anything that comes near this vertical incline will eventually lose 80% to near 100%, always happens, it's usually preceded by emotions (price euphoria), attention, and increased volume, all classic signs that something is becoming riskier.
Other speculative securities gaining multiples and then losing 80% to near 100% of value:

Notable comments on reddit:

*This is just to get you guys looking at different subs on this topic, and yeah it's mostly anti-crypto, but don't let that discourage you.

Is Bitcoin going to crash?

Maybe, the signals are getting louder, you tell me: The only chart you wanted to see this entire time.
So based on the above chart, is bitcoin overbought? MACD levels are the same as 2013's crash, but the increased in value is around 4.3x or 2.4x (depending on which you look at), so maybe we'll see another spike before a crash, I don't know, it's up to interpretation right now. There's the emotional price levels of 3000 and 4000 that we might have no problem getting to in an overbought environment before a correction. And how big will the correction be? I think 80%, but it very well could be around 50% down to $1200, the previous level of resistance which would become support.
I put everything above in its own wiki here.
Well I hope that helps everyone. Sorry to anyone that may feel butthurt on classifying cryptocoins as speculation, I hope you understand the facts. Feel free to argue or agree with this. If I made any mistakes and you point them out, I'll correct them and give you credit for it in an update to this post and the wiki.
Also the automod will is just going to blanket remove posts (not comments) with the following keywords {crypto, bitcoin, btc, etherium, altcoin} (see update 4 below) (this will eventually get relaxed if Coinbase ever IPOs) and then it'll send the user this message:
"Sorry your post[link] was removed in stocks because of rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. You can find more information in our are-cryptocurrencies-investments wiki. If you're trying to discuss a non-OTC stock related to cryptocoins like Coinbase IPO, or this was just a mistake, message the mods and they'll approve your post, thanks."
Update: Created wiki, added relevant websites and sub reddits. Also turned on automod reply.
Update2: those relavant websites and subreddits I put into the wiki, thanks u/dross99 for recommending ethereum

Relevant websites/wikis

Relevant subreddits

  • CryptoCurrency - main sub to learn about all bit & altcoins
  • ethtrader - trading eth
  • ethereum - for more eth information
  • btc - the place to have bitcoin discussions or r/CryptoCurrency; while Bitcoin does have a lot of information on Bitcoins in general, you'll find many reddit subs completely opposed to Bitcoin for heavy censorship of discussions, especially those critical of bitcoins, so you're better off reading the sub's wikis and discussing bitcoins in btc & r/CryptoCurrency
  • personalfinance
Update3: Shoutout to the mods on CryptoCurrency
Update4: Updated auto mod keywords, it's not a blanket catch all, a little completed to understand if you don't know regex but it looks like this
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)" 
submitted by provoko to stocks [link] [comments]

Decred Journal — May 2018

Note: New Reddit look may not highlight links. See old look here. A copy is hosted on GitHub for better reading experience. Check it out, contains photo of the month! Also on Medium

Development

dcrd: Significant optimization in signature hash calculation, bloom filters support was removed, 2x faster startup thanks to in-memory full block index, multipeer work advancing, stronger protection against majority hashpower attacks. Additionally, code refactoring and cleanup, code and test infrastructure improvements.
In dcrd and dcrwallet developers have been experimenting with new modular dependency and versioning schemes using vgo. @orthomind is seeking feedback for his work on reproducible builds.
Decrediton: 1.2.1 bugfix release, work on SPV has started, chart additions are in progress. Further simplification of the staking process is in the pipeline (slack).
Politeia: new command line tool to interact with Politeia API, general development is ongoing. Help with testing will soon be welcome: this issue sets out a test plan, join #politeia to follow progress and participate in testing.
dcrdata: work ongoing on improved design, adding more charts and improving Insight API support.
Android: design work advancing.
Decred's own DNS seeder (dcrseeder) was released. It is written in Go and it properly supports service bit filtering, which will allow SPV nodes to find full nodes that support compact filters.
Ticket splitting service by @matheusd entered beta and demonstrated an 11-way split on mainnet. Help with testing is much appreciated, please join #ticket_splitting to participate in splits, but check this doc to learn about the risks. Reddit discussion here.
Trezor support is expected to land in their next firmware update.
Decred is now supported by Riemann, a toolbox from James Prestwich to construct transactions for many UTXO-based chains from human-readable strings.
Atomic swap with Ethereum on testnet was demonstrated at Blockspot Conference LATAM.
Two new faces were added to contributors page.
Dev activity stats for May: 238 active PRs, 195 master commits, 32,831 added and 22,280 deleted lines spread across 8 repositories. Contributions came from 4-10 developers per repository. (chart)

Network

Hashrate: rapid growth from ~4,000 TH/s at the beginning of the month to ~15,000 at the end with new all time high of 17,949. Interesting dynamic in hashrate distribution across mining pools: coinmine.pl share went down from 55% to 25% while F2Pool up from 2% to 44%. [Note: as of June 6, the hashrate continues to rise and has already passed 22,000 TH/s]
Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 91.3 DCR (+0.8), stake participation is 46.9% (+0.8%) with 3.68 million DCR locked (+0.15). Min price was 85.56. On May 11 ticket price surged to 96.99, staying elevated for longer than usual after such a pump. Locked DCR peaked at 47.17%. jet_user on reddit suggested that the DCR for these tickets likely came from a miner with significant hashrate.
Nodes: there are 226 public listening and 405 normal nodes per dcred.eu. Version distribution: 45% on v1.2.0 (up from 24% last month), 39% on v1.1.2, 15% on v1.1.0 and 1% running outdaded versions.

ASICs

Obelisk team posted an update. Current hashrate estimate of DCR1 is 1200 GH/s at 500 W and may still change. The chips came back at 40% the speed of the simulated results, it is still unknown why. Batch 1 units may get delayed 1-2 weeks past June 30. See discussions on decred and on siacoin.
@SiaBillionaire estimated that 7940 DCR1 units were sold in Batches 1-5, while Lynmar13 shared his projections of DCR1 profitability (reddit).
A new Chinese miner for pre-order was noticed by our Telegram group. Woodpecker WB2 specs 1.5 TH/s at 1200 W, costs 15,000 CNY (~2,340 USD) and the initial 150 units are expected to ship on Aug 15. (pow8.comtranslated)
Another new miner is iBelink DSM6T: 6 TH/s at 2100 W costing $6,300 (ibelink.co). Shipping starts from June 5. Some concerns and links were posted in these two threads.

Integrations

A new mining pool is available now: altpool.net. It uses PPLNS model and takes 1% fee.
Another infrastructure addition is tokensmart.io, a newly audited stake pool with 0.8% fee. There are a total of 14 stake pools now.
Exchange integrations:
OpenBazaar released an update that allows one to trade cryptocurrencies, including DCR.
@i2Rav from i2trading is now offering two sided OTC market liquidity on DCUSD in #trading channel.
Paytomat, payments solution for point of sale and e-commerce, integrated Decred. (missed in April issue)
CoinPayments, a payment processor supporting Decred, developed an integration with @Shopify that allows connected merchants to accept cryptocurrencies in exchange for goods.

Adoption

New merchants:
An update from VotoLegal:
michae2xl: Voto Legal: CEO Thiago Rondon of Appcívico, has already been contacted by 800 politicians and negotiations have started with four pre-candidates for the presidency (slack, source tweet)
Blockfolio rolled out Signal Beta with Decred in the list. Users who own or watch a coin will automatically receive updates pushed by project teams. Nice to see this Journal made it to the screenshot!
Placeholder Ventures announced that Decred is their first public investment. Their Investment Thesis is a clear and well researched overview of Decred. Among other great points it noted the less obvious benefit of not doing an ICO:
By choosing not to pre-sell coins to speculators, the financial rewards from Decred’s growth most favor those who work for the network.
Alex Evans, a cryptoeconomics researcher who recently joined Placeholder, posted his 13-page Decred Network Analysis.

Marketing

@Dustorf published March–April survey results (pdf). It analyzes 166 responses and has lots of interesting data. Just an example:
"I own DECRED because I saw a YouTube video with DECRED Jesus and after seeing it I was sold."
May targeted advertising report released. Reach @timhebel for full version.
PiedPiperCoin hired our advisors.
More creative promos by @jackliv3r: Contributing, Stake Now, The Splitting, Forbidden Exchange, Atomic Swaps.
Reminder: Stakey has his own Twitter account where he tweets about his antics and pours scorn on the holders of expired tickets.
"Autonomy" coin sculpture is available at sigmasixdesign.com.

Events

BitConf in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Jake Yocom-Piatt presented "Decentralized Central Banking". Note the mini stakey on one of the photos. (articletranslated, photos: 1 2 album)
Wicked Crypto Meetup in Warsaw, Poland. (video, photos: 1 2)
Decred Polska Meetup in Katowice, Poland. First known Decred Cake. (photos: 1 2)
Austin Hispanic Hackers Meetup in Austin, USA.
Consensus 2018 in New York, USA. See videos in the Media section. Select photos: booth, escort, crew, moon boots, giant stakey. Many other photos and mentions were posted on Twitter. One tweet summarized Decred pretty well:
One project that stands out at #Consensus2018 is @decredproject. Not annoying. Real tech. Humble team. #BUIDL is strong with them. (@PallerJohn)
Token Summit in New York, USA. @cburniske and @jmonegro from Placeholder talked "Governance and Cryptoeconomics" and spoke highly of Decred. (twitter coverage: 1 2, video, video (from 32 min))
Campus Party in Bahia, Brazil. João Ferreira aka @girino and Gabriel @Rhama were introducing Decred, talking about governance and teaching to perform atomic swaps. (photos)
Decred was introduced to the delegates from Shanghai's Caohejing Hi-Tech Park, organized by @ybfventures.
Second Decred meetup in Hangzhou, China. (photos)
Madison Blockchain in Madison, USA. "Lots of in-depth questions. The Q&A lasted longer than the presentation!". (photo)
Blockspot Conference Latam in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (photos: 1, 2)
Upcoming events:
There is a community initiative by @vj to organize information related to events in a repository. Jump in #event_planning channel to contribute.

Media

Decred scored B (top 3) in Weiss Ratings and A- (top 8) in Darpal Rating.
Chinese institute is developing another rating system for blockchains. First round included Decred (translated). Upon release Decred ranked 26. For context, Bitcoin ranked 13.
Articles:
Audios:
Videos:

Community Discussions

Community stats: Twitter 39,118 (+742), Reddit 8,167 (+277), Slack 5,658 (+160). Difference is between May 5 and May 31.
Reddit highlights: transparent up/down voting on Politeia, combining LN and atomic swaps, minimum viable superorganism, the controversial debate on Decred contractor model (people wondered about true motives behind the thread), tx size and fees discussion, hard moderation case, impact of ASICs on price, another "Why Decred?" thread with another excellent pitch by solar, fee analysis showing how ticket price algorithm change was controversial with ~100x cut in miner profits, impact of ticket splitting on ticket price, recommendations on promoting Decred, security against double spends and custom voting policies.
@R3VoLuT1OneR posted a preview of a proposal from his company for Decred to offer scholarships for students.
dcrtrader gained a couple of new moderators, weekly automatic threads were reconfigured to monthly and empty threads were removed. Currently most trading talk happens on #trading and some leaks to decred. A separate trading sub offers some advantages: unlimited trading talk, broad range of allowed topics, free speech and transparent moderation, in addition to standard reddit threaded discussion, permanent history and search.
Forum: potential social attacks on Decred.
Slack: the #governance channel created last month has seen many intelligent conversations on topics including: finite attention of decision makers, why stakeholders can make good decisions (opposed to a common narrative than only developers are capable of making good decisions), proposal funding and contractor pre-qualification, Cardano and Dash treasuries, quadratic voting, equality of outcome vs equality of opportunity, and much more.
One particularly important issue being discussed is the growing number of posts arguing that on-chain governance and coin voting is bad. Just a few examples from Twitter: Decred is solving an imagined problem (decent response by @jm_buirski), we convince ourselves that we need governance and ticket price algo vote was not controversial, on-chain governance hurts node operators and it is too early for it, it robs node operators of their role, crypto risks being captured by the wealthy, it is a huge threat to the whole public blockchain space, coin holders should not own the blockchain.
Some responses were posted here and here on Twitter, as well as this article by Noah Pierau.

Markets

The month of May has seen Decred earn some much deserved attention in the markets. DCR started the month around 0.009 BTC and finished around 0.0125 with interim high of 0.0165 on Bittrex. In USD terms it started around $81 and finished around $92, temporarily rising to $118. During a period in which most altcoins suffered, Decred has performed well; rising from rank #45 to #30 on Coinmarketcap.
The addition of a much awaited KRW pair on Upbit saw the price briefly double on some exchanges. This pair opens up direct DCR to fiat trading in one of the largest cryptocurrency markets in the world.
An update from @i2Rav:
We have begun trading DCR in large volume daily. The interest around DCR has really started to grow in terms of OTC quote requests. More and more customers are asking about trading it.
Like in previous month, Decred scores high by "% down from ATH" indicator being #2 on onchainfx as of June 6.

Relevant External

David Vorick (@taek) published lots of insights into the world of ASIC manufacturing (reddit). Bitmain replied.
Bitmain released an ASIC for Equihash (archived), an algorithm thought to be somewhat ASIC-resistant 2 years ago.
Three pure PoW coins were attacked this month, one attempting to be ASIC resistant. This shows the importance of Decred's PoS layer that exerts control over miners and allows Decred to welcome ASIC miners for more PoW security without sacrificing sovereignty to them.
Upbit was raided over suspected fraud and put under investigation. Following news reported no illicit activity was found and suggested and raid was premature and damaged trust in local exchanges.
Circle, the new owner of Poloniex, announced a USD-backed stablecoin and Bitmain partnership. The plan is to make USDC available as a primary market on Poloniex. More details in the FAQ.
Poloniex announced lower trading fees.
Bittrex plans to offer USD trading pairs.
@sumiflow made good progress on correcting Decred market cap on several sites:
speaking of market cap, I got it corrected on coingecko, cryptocompare, and worldcoinindex onchainfx, livecoinwatch, and cryptoindex.co said they would update it about a month ago but haven't yet I messaged coinlib.io today but haven't got a response yet coinmarketcap refused to correct it until they can verify certain funds have moved from dev wallets which is most likely forever unknowable (slack)

About This Issue

Some source links point to Slack messages. Although Slack hides history older than ~5 days, you can read individual messages if you paste the message link into chat with yourself. Digging the full conversation is hard but possible. The history of all channels bridged to Matrix is saved in Matrix. Therefore it is possible to dig history in Matrix if you know the timestamp of the first message. Slack links encode the timestamp: https://decred.slack.com/archives/C5H9Z63AA/p1525528370000062 => 1525528370 => 2018-05-05 13:52:50.
Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research.
Your feedback is precious. You can post on GitHub, comment on Reddit or message us in #writers_room channel.
Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, Richard-Red, snr01 and solar.
submitted by jet_user to decred [link] [comments]

Repost - I hate my Fucking Mining rig! (Not really)(Long)

Wanted to write a short write up on my journey of Crypto mining for some of the newer people and people who want to get into it. Not trying to discourage anyone from starting, but want to show the progression of a newbie.
So I am a good with computers and learned of Bitcoin when it was about $7 a coin. Laughed at the idea of some computer doing some math and getting some BS currency. Million dollar mistake on my part, but hindsight is always 20/20.
Anyways, Learned about ethereum in May. Bought some at around $180 and bought all the way up to $330. Now to the mining rig. Ran all of the calculations and with a 180 hashrate and 900 watts I was gonna get 6-7 Eth per month. Shit was gonna be profitable in under 3 months. I was gonna be a fucking crypto allstar and be rich as fuck!
Bought all of my parts literally the day before they were nonexistent. Literally bought the last RX480's from Amazon. Here is a list of my parts.
Asrock board Pentium dual core processor 4 Gb of ram 128 gb SSD 1200 watt Rosewill PSU 6 Sata to Molex PCI Risers (Junk) 6 RX480's - 2 Asus Strix, 4 Gigabyte Total cost - Roughly $2,500 (Pennies compared to my future ROI)
Please keep in mind that I am not posting every single miner issue that I ran into such as fucking with Wattman for a few weeks before learning about Trixx and Afterburner.
I've built computers before, so that part wasn't hard. Set everything up and get windows 10 running.
Problem 1 - Computer doesn't see all of the cards. Had to run the drivers a few times and tweak some shit, but got all 6 cards seen.
Miner hurdle (See what I did there) but off to the races. Let's get this bitch running so I can begin planning my retirement.
Get Claymore running, Got Trixx to overclock. Ran my cards at -96, 1200, 2200 fans at 85% (Cause I'm cool like that.) Major stability issues from the start. 1 card (Asus) would crash all the time. Didn't know about the watch dog feature in claymore that would restart my rig when a card crashed. Great feature but my computer would go into this state of having power, but not loading the operating system. Even if it did restart, most of the time claymore would get stuck right before setting the dag's and would just lock up. (Claymore program is awesome by the way, this was my rigs fault)
Could not get this fucking Asus card to stop crashing, even on stock settings. Sent the bitch back RMA style. Asus said something was wrong and sent me a new one.
Awesome, lets get this bitch running. I need to start looking at sick houses in Costa Rica to move to once I am rich as Fuck!
New card makes things better for a few days. Not 100% stable but better. Go to vegas for a driving thing (Race cars - Future rich guy stuff) and this mechanical demon starts crashing every few hours. Luckily I had Google remote desktop installed so I could log on and restart it or change settings in Trixx. Had to have my GF unplug it and plug it in a few times.
Get back home, fuck with this thing but still random crashes on random cards. Decide it is the PCI risers. Contact seller who will send me some more for free. Slow boat from china took two weeks to get them. They arrive but still some of them are bad. Can't seem to piece together 6 good ones.
Did some research online (Ethereum Forum and Reddit) and decided to get some new style of risers V007 6 Pin to Sata ($70) and they take a month to get here. Plug them all in and they seem to be working much better. Decent stability, But I ain't got time for fucking stock bios. Let's ramp these bitches up and get 32 MHs per card at 600 watts from the wall!
Actually flashing the bios was pretty easy. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus! Long story short had some major stability issues and bounced around with some different timing straps before finding the right ones. (Uber 3.1 for Samsung memory)
So now that we've got some good hash speeds and decent stability let's ramp this private ATM up a little bit by dual mining some Decred. Get dual mining up and running. go to sleep. Wake up the next morning expecting to see myself on the top 100 forbes list. look at my mining rig stats on my phone and see that it died roughly and hour after I went to sleep. Walked toward my rig on the red carpet I had just installed and saw that it was off. Flicked on the light to check it out. No light, WTF? Well I'll be god damned, no power in this whole fucking room. Checked my breakers and sure enough this metal motherfucker tripped my breaker.
No worries though. I'm smart as fuck. I'll just undervolt the shit out of it to get the power down. No way in hell I am just mining ether. I'm going balls to the wall!
As you can expect I had many days of stability issues and tripped breakers. But fuck it, I have homeowners insurance. Burning it to the ground will be covered. (Didn't happen)
My surge protector must be maxed out. Let's buy a bigger one ($25). Same issues.
Fuck Decred, I'll mine SIA, less power. Damn I'm smart.
Rig is more stable with Sia and no tripped breakers. Family medical emergency, have to fly north for a few days. But my rig has been fairly stable and I've got remote desktop if anything goes wrong.
Arrive at airport, check mining stats, rig is down. No worries remote desktop. FUCK, not responsive, no way to remote into the rig and no way to remotely power it off and on.
Lost 4 days of mining. But no worries the difficulty is only, Holy shit that's high! But the price of Ether will make up for it. Ether crashed to the $200's. Oh well, maybe a 10 room house in Costa instead of a 12. No sweat.
Get back to my house and this whore of a machine is just sitting there in a computer coma. It's on but it's not. LED lights glaring at me like "Fuck you human, I ain't doing your stupid math problems!" Fuck you machine, I'm your master. You will do my math problems and you will fucking like it.
My AMD Drivers seem to disappear and the computer goes into a coma like state. Someone on Reddit suggested using the 16.9.2 drivers. Installed and they worked better.
Still random crashing. This shitty PSU must be maxed out. Fuck you PSU, I'm getting you a little brother (EVGA 750 gold $120.)
What do you mean you have to jerry rig a second PSU so it starts without being connected to a motherboard? 2 more hours of my life wasted.
But finally some stability. On my way to being fucking rich. I start looking at people in bentley's and can only laugh. You dumb fuck, I'm gonna be way richer then you. Gonna get a Bugatti for each day of the week.
Damn this difficulty is a bitch. Fuck you Genesis Mining and your pallets of GPU's. You're killing me smalls!
But anyway, on my way to rolling around in my fuck you money!
Fuck you dag file 135, you're killing my future millions. Fuck you dag 138, you dropped me to 167 mhs.
Thank god AMD was there to save my ass with their dope ass blockchain drivers.
download, run DDU, Restart, install drivers, restart, run pixel patch, restart. Perfect, I'm in the money now! I can taste the caviar and champagne already.
Now my cards only run 4 Mhs each. WTF? Try a bunch of the other new drivers. Same shit. Roll back to 16.9.2 and they run fine, just at 167 instead of 180.
Someone on a forum said he had the same issue and did a fresh install of windows 10 and it worked.
So I'll just reformat my SSD (Windows wouldn't do a fresh install within the operating system. Fuck you Bill Gates! Gonna buy you once I get this thing running at 180.)
Format SSD, plug back in, throw in my gangster ass boot USB drive. Ramdisk error. Fuck you Bill Gates! Reformat SSD multiple times, lots of forum reading. Install windows from another computer through command prompt (I'm a coder now as well.) This shit has got to work, I did it in command prompt bitches!
Same fucking error. Now down to an 8 bedroom house in Costa and only 6 Bugattis.
Let's try unplugging my 6 cards and see if that works. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus. Windows installed.
New drivers work and I'm back at 180! Raking in the cash now.
With those speeds my Asus cards crashed. Had to dial down the hashrate to 177.5 for them to be stable. So now going to use some commands in claymore to run the Asus cards at lower speeds while letting my other cards mine harder.
I wrote this to let people know that mining isn't all Bugatti's and caviar. These machines are fickle little cunts that do what they want. No system is the same. So when you post on a forum, people will give you advice on what may work. But what works for them, may not work on your rig. In the end it's up to you to figure it out.
I have spent countless hours after work and on weekends working on this bitch. Hell I've probably spent a few hours just staring at it and thinking about all of the ways I could destroy it slowly.
While I love Etheruem and do value the knowledge gained, I would have made more money just buying Eth and holding.
The guys you see on youtube building sick rigs with crazy specs have been at it for a while. They have worked through the process and know how to solve all of the problems. You have not and will have to work them out on your own.
My whore of a rig will pay for itself soon. But I would suggest that if you want to start building a new mining rig. Check the difficulty chart and make sure you have tons of free time to fuck with it.
I'd post my wallet address for donations since I just saved you $2,600. But I am afraid hackers will steal my monies :)
Hope you enjoyed my mining life story from the past few months.
Edit - Had an Asus card die on me and replaced it with a 1070ti. Nvidia is so much easier!
My rosewill 1200 watt PSU melted the 8 pin port and cable. Had to drop $300 on Amazons last 1300 EVGA.
But my rig has well surpassed it's cost and is still mining away like a champ. Eth for life!
submitted by dank4us12 to EtherMining [link] [comments]

BEAR market coming...

Hi guys,
The huge bull market we've seen in the recent months has let the market cap grow roughly ten times with some (roughly) 100 billion $ paper valuation created and enriching early entrants, traders and even anyone who bought more than 2 months ago.
For all who think they're geniuses because they're up 20% 50% or even 100% ONLY i've got bad news, bull markets in whatever asset don't last forever. You can't expect over 1000% quarterly (or monthly !) every quarter !! do you math its just impossible and its not gonna happen
The market is overbought by any metric. i'll take the simplest one, the monthly RSI. well I see it at 88 on BTCUSD, 97 (!!!) on ETHEUR, 80 on XRPBTC but if we made one for XRPUSD it zould probably be close to 97 as well...
Its been an incredible rally and actually i've missed myself all of the recent leg. of course i feel like a total idiot considering my last ETH around 90 EUR and most of it at even lower prices, still at the time RSI was ALREADY overbought, and i was up my initial stake x13. anyone picking up my ETH at 90 would have to wait 1300 EUR, another x4 to match such performance.
Guys you have to forget those 10% or 20% moves and look at the big picture. In ETH, there was a huge move up, and just MEAN REVERSION (i'm not even talking about trend change) would take us back to near double digits...current MA10 is 65 EUROS. I see a zone around 65-95 which looks as a natural target for mean reversion, and 25-40 looks like the big long term support zone from which the parabolic move began.
for BTC, mean reversion is somewhere around 800-1200 EUR for XRPBTC 4000 satoshis, i let you do the math using BTC target
Of course if such a move happens, there will be some abrupt moves down but also some powerful rallies in between (50% or more) and this scenario would take months to unfold.
After which, the new direction will be dictated by whatever new events happen (example. bullish a smaller country endorsing a cryptocurrency as its currency. bearish: govts forbidding crypto, finance industry implementing their own blockchains with instant cheap international settlements)
As for fundamentals i can see some good arguments to why crypto market cap should be worth (much?) more than 1 trillion but I see also some good ones why it should be worth only perhaps only 50% or 20% than now, and on top of that maybe with some currency which does not yet exist being most of it.
But whatever, what matters to me is the that the market is way overbought. Bitcoin experienced a similar powerful rallies in 2013 with highly overbought RSI the result was 259->63 a 75% drop and then 1163->152 an 87% drop...
Independently of crypto being revolutionary etc...and PERHAPS having the potential to be worth more in the future, i believe we can have losses of this magnitude and a bottoming process which last months if not years before the market changes direction again.
Shorter time frames (weekly, daily) show sign of divergence (RSI, volume) and some trendlines taken out. Don't forget in a bubble that the demand is highest at the peak of the bubble. Don't forget that for every buyer there has been one seller. there has been peak demand in the last month and the big whales have been cashing out.
No one is buying crypto to "use" it. everyone is buying it in hoping to sell it at a greater fool. but the chart is telling me we're running out of greater fools. Also who is REALLY making money in this market ? the small hodler who bought at 350$ a few thousands worth of ETH ? or those guys who have sold ICO TOKENS one shot for hundreds of millions of USD to the last bunch of amateur speculators ? My point is that those who are CURRENTLY making huge money in this market and the WINNERS are the guys selling now, and selling AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE (through ICO s !!!) and if you're not a winner, then .... you're probably the greater fool....
Bull markets are fun but if/when the momentum starts to turn and we have paper valuations decreasing by 1 billion every percent and we start to have double digit moves, the big holders are gonna rush for the exit... there is huge pending ICO related supply and lets not forget the mining supply as well.
We don't need any "news" to go down, an overbought bubbly market just collapses on its own weight and the more stretched it is the more violent is the snap back. When it happens, victims of the bear market will find excuses with "we could not have forecast this hack or this thing happening", the real story is that every bubble pops
by the way there will be no safe haven apart FIAT. if BTC, ETH XRP go down then it will drive the whole market down with it.
TLDR. i'm recommending to people to cash out as much as possible, and be in "trading mode". there is huge volatility and there will be a lot of opportunities.
Disclosure: very small long strategic position in crypto. focused on intraday opportunities and algorithmic trading and arbitrage. so far the market has been good to me since i cashed out, making money little by little, no big gains, but with almost no risk. i would start to go strategically ong again only if we get nearer to monthly moving averages. Before it happens, only trading positions with a short time frame. (and of course : NEVER SHORT CRYPTO !)
submitted by GrossBit to ethtrader [link] [comments]

If you are wondering why Cboe futures are $1200 over spot price, or want to hear why that is a problem

After the futures opened last night, I have been doing some thinking and research, and it is fairly concerning to me, so thought I would share.
First of all, here is the situation: the January future is, at this time, $1200 over the price on GDAX.
Now the naive view is that this is because people expect the price to go up by that much over the next month, that is what a future is right?
But no, this is incorrect, and here is why: There is a very simple arbitrage opportunity in this situation, called cash and carry. How it works, is you sell one future contract, and at the same time buy one bitcoin. As mentioned the price difference between these two is $1200. Then you hold both of those through to the settlement date, and at that point sell your bitcoin. The price you get from your bitcoin sell will be exactly* the same price you settle the future at, by definition. So you have made $1200 without taking any trade risk**.
Now clearly I would like to take advantage of this free money, but I can't because I can't find anyplace that will let retail investors short sell the future contract.
This is a problem because as we know, institutional investors are reluctant to hold actual bitcoin, so they can't run this arbitrage. So, there is no one to take the other side of these trades, and hence there is a tendency for the price to only go up, as there are buyers, but no one selling at the market price***.
This is the same situation we were in before, where it is easy to go long bitcoin, but nearly impossible to go short. Or put another way, the very best recipe for a bubble.
In conclusion, I believe the futures to be mispriced (high), and that is not helping the bubblish tenancies of bitcoin at this time.
Footnotes: * There is risk of volatility at the settlement time, and if you don't time your sell for the exact time of the settlement, you may get a different price
** The trade caries no risk, but there is risk elsewhere, settlement volatility as above, counterparty risk, and potentially needing to provide a lot of cash to cover the short if the price goes up. Note that doesn't mean you are going to loose on the trade, just that you may have to supply a lot of cash until you can settle, which would reduce your yield. And if you run out of cash, then ouch.
*** Yes there are sellers, we know, because there has to be a match on both sides for the contract to be sold. But those are short sellers betting on price going down, not this riskless arbitrage I am talking about. Those people are only selling at this higher price, because they are taking actual risk. This is where the mispriced outcome comes from.
Edit: See also Matt Levine at Bloomberg, who wrote a piece calling out exactly what I describe above.
submitted by da5id to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitkong.com

So this site called bitkong.com is a crypto-climb game, meaning you have a set amount of bitcoin (or any other supported crypto in the game like bits or mBTC) or even actual money like USD or Euro’s, and you climb the chart of rewards, followed by a ding sound or a coconut-like shape telling you that you have won the next reward, or you get a poop-like symbol or a fart noise saying that you failed. At this time I do not believe there is a max bet of any sort, so if you have a lot of bitcoin, I would try this out! The only problem with this site, is that you can miss a LOT, like you can play it on the easiest difficulty and still miss 5–10 times in the same spot. If you want a recommendation from me, I would say stick to easy difficulty for now, because medium is a 50/50 shot at getting the rewards, and more times than not, I have missed, so medium is NOT worth it. Hard difficulty is also not worth trying because like easy difficulty, you have three slots to choose from, but only one of those is a win, easy has two slots open for you to win, so it can go from missing 5–10 times to missing 20–25 times, me personally? I have missed 50 times on the hard difficulty, in a row… Mostly on the same spot, probably about 35 times, the other 15 times were just unlucky I guess? Maybe this just is not my game to play. Also, if you do not have a bunch of bitcoin to start off with, than I would not even try to play this game, sometimes the faucet will pay you either 400 or 600 satoshi or like $0.04 in actual currency. This amount will go by REALLY fast when you are using it in-game and most times than not, I have just resorted to using all 400 or 600 in one bet, because I knew I would lose my money way to fast doing the game the legit way. Also, these 400–600 payouts are only during special events like during the weekend or during the weekdays at random points. So if you want to try out this game, I would highly suggest a couple of things, one being come with a bunch of money, well maybe not to much, let’s say around $20 in bitcoin or USD. Another being that, if you want to play the game for free, expect to lose a LOT, you will find yourself giving up more than it is worth, I am addicted to this game, so I play everyday, all the time pretty much. There are some pro’s to playing for free though, most people do I’m pretty sure, one pro is that you can ‘upgrade’ your account to what they call ‘hero’ level, which leads me to the next point, THE FAUCET…. IS BROKEN! The faucet is probably the best one I’ve ever seen, you can get 100 bits for free out of this faucet every 5 minutes! This is of course without any bonuses like the weekdays and weekends I was talking about earlier. Hero level gives you the opportunity to upgrade from getting 100 every 5 minutes to 200 every 5 minutes. There is another rank called ‘Legendary’ but the goal is basically next to impossible to get to, to get to the hero level, it’s not that bad, you have to play (win or lose basically) 1000 games and you have to spend in total 1 whole bitcoin. Another thing is this, you cannot claim these bonuses unless you sign up or in with FaceBook, that is the downside, I just made a fake user with a fake age, and signed up with them for free, but after you sign up you can make a bunch of bitcoin! The other rank like I was talking about before I rambled about FaceBook, is that to get the legendary rank, you have to play 10,000 games (which is not that bad to do, it’s the next one that is bad), and you have to at least had bet over 100 bitcoins! This is the worst, because I have already played around 1200 games and I have only invested about 100,000 satoshi, which is still 99,900,000 off from getting that hero rank. Chances are I will be playing this game for around 3–5 month’s at this rate to get that amount in so I can get that sweet bitcoin. I have zero clue what you get out of the faucet at legendary rank, but I have a feeling it is 300 bits instead of 200 which is nice, but it will take me at my current rate, around 2–3 years to get that rank, unless I hit the jackpot or invest money into this. So I will leave this with a warning: Do not play this game if you can get addicted easily like I have, I already know that if I had more money to spend I would easily spend all of it on this site. If you have self-control over what you can and cannot spend, than I would suggest this game to you personally! The max amount of money that I would spend on this game if I was not addicted would probably be about $5 or maybe $10, do not go spending $100 or $1000 on this game like some people have. Can you make some serious money if you deposit $1000 and hit the coconut and not the poop, YES! But the game knows on how much you are betting, and they will make you fail if it is over around 4000 bits, you will lose more than you will win it seems. Before you ask, the most I have won so far has been 10,000 satoshi, and I bet all of it at once and lost it, thinking I could get an easy profit. I do not have any strategy towards this game other than if you lose all your bitcoin, get some from the faucet and bet all 100 or 400 or 600 whatever and just hope like heck you get the first two or three rows from the start. You could try doing the old school strategy which is get around 1k satoshi and than do these steps. Bet 10 satoshi on the first roll, try to go up 5 rows and than cash out, if you lose try betting 20, than go up four rows, if you win, cash out. If you lose bet 50 and than go up three rows, if you win cash out, if you don’t than go up to 100 bits and go up two rows. If you win than definitely cash out, if you lose than go up to 200 bits, here is where you go up one row, but here is my concern after reading this from someone else’s post. When you bet 100 and lose, going up to 200 and than not winning is an instant loss, so if you want to try going up to 400 or 500 satoshi and go up one row, otherwise you will lose about 80–100 satoshi in profits. Thank you for reading this if you even do, this is not a money guaranteed site, you have to have at least 200,000 satoshi to withdraw or 0.002 bitcoin, and winning this off of no purchases is next to impossible. Have a good day, and maybe I will update this page with some new strategies or something if I devise any.
submitted by xFZxLegendTTV to GetFreeBitcoins [link] [comments]

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